Hurricane Frances pre-impact pilot survey

Institute for Public Opinion Research
School of Journalism and Mass Communication
Florida International University

Hurricane Frances pilot pre-impact survey questionnaire

IPOR pre-impact Hurricane Frances survey conducted Wednesday evening Sept 1, 2004, 5:00-9:30 pm
(see NHC advisory 32 for storm status at that time -- estimated 21% chance of hurricane center passing within 65 miles of Miami, most likely Friday during the day. At interview time Francis had max sustained winds of 140 mph; hurricane force wind radius 80 mi)

brief interview with 101 residents of Miami Beach and Key Biscayne
random digit dial (RDD) probability sample
good response rate yielded accurate estimates; however, margin of error is high (plus or minus 10%) because of small sample size

Selected key findings:

72% were getting all the information they needed
83% felt the information was clear and understandable
73% would evacuate if Frances continued to threaten the area, 27% said they would not evacuate
about half of the people who planned to stay said they could change their mind.
people living at low or high levels of multistory building somewhat more likely to say they will evacuate than people on mid-level
no significant relationship between age and planned evacuation rate
Hispanics are more likely to plan to evacuate.
41% of people evacuating planned to go to the home of a friend or relative
15% to a hotel or motel
7% to a shelter
Most of the people planning to evacuate will go to destinations in Miami-Dade or Broward Counties.

Follow-up survey after Frances made landfall

50 respondents of the first survey who had said they could be called back after did a qualitative follow-up interview on the phone
Many who had said they were going to evacuate decided not to when Frances slowed down and weakened
Many respondents in the follow-up said they were aware of the importance of looking at the "cone of probability" rather than the forecast track

Hurricane Frances pre-impact pilot survey preliminary tabulations

Institute for Public Opinion Research
Florida International University

survey instrument questions © 2003, 2004 Institute for Public Opinion Research
FIU IRB human subjects approval 8/30/2004

1. Hello, I'm ______________ calling from Florida International University. We're doing a quick survey asking people in Miami-Dade County a few questions about hurricane preparedness and Hurricane Frances now in the Atlantic. All answers will remain anonymous and confidential. We are interviewing people 18 or older -- could I ask you these questions?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 RESPONDENT READY TO PROCEED IN ENGLISH	75	74.3	74.3	74.3
	2 RESPONDENT READY TO PROCEED IN SPANISH	26	25.7	25.7	100.0
	Total	101	100.0	100.0

2. This survey may be monitored for quality control purposes. How useful is the information you are getting about Hurricane Frances? Are you getting all the information you need, are you getting some information but not enough, are you not getting any useful information at all, or haven't you heard anything about Hurricane Frances?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 GETTING ALL INFORMATION NEEDED	73	72.3	73.0	73.0
	2 SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH	24	23.8	24.0	97.0
	3 NO USEFUL INFORMATION	3	3.0	3.0	100.0
	Total	100	99.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	1	1.0
Total		101	100.0

3. Is the information you are getting about the hurricane clear and understandable, could it be better, or is it not clear at all?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 CLEAR AND UNDERSTANDABLE	83	82.2	83.0	83.0
	2 COULD BE BETTER	16	15.8	16.0	99.0
	3 NOT CLEAR AT ALL	1	1.0	1.0	100.0
	Total	100	99.0	100.0
Missing	System	1	1.0
Total		101	100.0

4. What in the information is unclear to you?
[open-end]

5. Have you or will you be doing things to get ready for the hurricane?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES	87	86.1	88.8	88.8
	2 NO	11	10.9	11.2	100.0
	Total	98	97.0	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	3	3.0
Total		101	100.0

6. What are you doing to get ready? [INTERVIEWER DO NOT READ RESPONSES -- CHECK ALL THAT APPLY. PROBE IF NECESSARY]


Group $Q6  6. What are you doing to get ready?
     (Value tabulated = 1)

                                                             Pct of  Pct of
Dichotomy label                          Name       Count  Responses  Cases

PUTTING UP WINDOW/DOOR PROTECTION        q6_1          36     16.2     41.9
FIGURING OUT WHERE TO GO                 q6_2          29     13.1     33.7
GETTING PRESCRIPTIONS MEDICAL SUPPLIES   q6_3          11      5.0     12.8
GETTING FOOD, WATER                      q6_4          65     29.3     75.6
GETTING BATTERIES, SUPPLIES              q6_5          50     22.5     58.1
SECURING PETS                            q6_6           7      3.2      8.1
SECURING CAR                             q6_7           2       .9      2.3
SECURING BOAT                            q6_8           1       .5      1.2
SECURING BUSINESS                        q6_9           1       .5      1.2
OTHER, SPECIFY                           q6_10         20      9.0     23.3
                                                  -------    -----    -----
                                 Total responses      222    100.0    258.1

15 missing cases;  86 valid cases

6A. Do you or anyone else in your household have any special medical or other needs that will be a factor if the hurricane comes?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES, SPECIFY	17	16.8	16.8	16.8
	2 NO	84	83.2	83.2	100.0
	Total	101	100.0	100.0

6B. For the next few questions I need to talk to someone who is making decisions about whether your household will leave or stay for Hurricane Frances. Are you making these decisions alone, with others, or is someone else doing it?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 I AM INVOLVED IN MAKING DECISION	98	97.0	97.0	97.0
	2 SOMEONE ELSE MAKING DECISION [Ask to speak to that person]	3	3.0	3.0	100.0
	Total	101	100.0	100.0

7. If it looks like Hurricane Frances might hit Miami-Dade County, do you think you might leave or will you stay here in your home?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 MIGHT LEAVE	71	70.3	73.2	73.2
	2 WILL STAY	26	25.7	26.8	100.0
	Total	97	96.0	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	4	4.0
Total		101	100.0

8B. How long before the hurricane is supposed to arrive do you think you would leave your home [if you do leave]?
[open-end]

9. What are the reasons why you think you will not stay in your home? [INTERVIEWER DO NOT READ RESPONSES -- CHECK ALL THAT APPLY. PROBE IF NECESSARY]
[multiple response]


Group $Q9  9. Reasons why you will evacuate:
     (Value tabulated = 1)

                                                             Pct of  Pct of
Dichotomy label                          Name       Count  Responses  Cases

LIVE IN EVACUATION ZONE                  q9_1          51     45.9     71.8
EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN GIVEN AND WE N q9_2          12     10.8     16.9
HOME IS NOT SAFE                         q9_3          31     27.9     43.7
HAVE TO LEAVE DUE TO AGE/MEDICAL CONDITI q9_4           1       .9      1.4
CONCERNED FOR SAFETY OF CHILDREN AND/OR  q9_5           5      4.5      7.0
I COULD STAY BUT WANT TO BE WITH OTHERS  q9_7           1       .9      1.4
I WANT TO LEAVE EVEN THOUGH OTHER PERSON q9_8           1       .9      1.4
POLICE or RELATIVES ARE RECOMMENDING/FOR q9_9           2      1.8      2.8
OTHER, SPECIFY                           q9_10          7      6.3      9.9
                                                  -------    -----    -----
                                 Total responses      111    100.0    156.3

30 missing cases;  71 valid cases

Tabulation of evacuation plans by building height

**Crosstab**
			floors building height			Total
			1.00 1-2 floors	2.00 3-10 floors	3.00 over 10 floors	Total
q7 7. Will you leave your home or stay?	1 MIGHT LEAVE	Count	32	15	24	71
	1 MIGHT LEAVE	% within floors building height	72.7%	57.7%	88.9%	73.2%
	2 WILL STAY	Count	12	11	3	26
	2 WILL STAY	% within floors building height	27.3%	42.3%	11.1%	26.8%
Total		Count	44	26	27	97
Total		% within floors building height	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

**Chi-Square Tests**
	Value	df	Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square	6.579(a)	2	.037
Likelihood Ratio	6.946	2	.031
Linear-by-Linear Association	1.464	1	.226
N of Valid Cases	97
a 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 6.97.

**Symmetric Measures**
		Value	Asymp. Std. Error(a)	Approx. T(b)	Approx. Sig.
Ordinal by Ordinal	Gamma	-.195	.169	-1.147	.251
N of Valid Cases		97
a Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

Tabulation of evacuation plans by age

**Crosstab**
			agecat age				Total
			1.00 18-40	2.00 41-55	3.00 56-65	4.00 66 and older	Total
q7 7. Will you leave your home or stay?	1 MIGHT LEAVE	Count	37	10	9	14	70
	1 MIGHT LEAVE	% within agecat age	74.0%	76.9%	75.0%	70.0%	73.7%
	2 WILL STAY	Count	13	3	3	6	25
	2 WILL STAY	% within agecat age	26.0%	23.1%	25.0%	30.0%	26.3%
Total		Count	50	13	12	20	95
Total		% within agecat age	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

**Chi-Square Tests**
	Value	df	Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square	.224(a)	3	.974
Likelihood Ratio	.222	3	.974
Linear-by-Linear Association	.078	1	.780
N of Valid Cases	95
a 2 cells (25.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 3.16.

**Symmetric Measures**
		Value	Asymp. Std. Error(a)	Approx. T(b)	Approx. Sig.
Ordinal by Ordinal	Gamma	.043	.193	.219	.827
N of Valid Cases		95
a Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.

Tabulation of evacuation plans by Hispanic origin

			q41 41. Hispanic origin		Total
			1 HISPANIC	2 NOT HISPANIC	Total
q7 7. Will you leave your home or stay?	1 MIGHT LEAVE	Count	45	24	69
	1 MIGHT LEAVE	% within q41 41. Hispanic origin	80.4%	63.2%	73.4%
	2 WILL STAY	Count	11	14	25
	2 WILL STAY	% within q41 41. Hispanic origin	19.6%	36.8%	26.6%
Total		Count	56	38	94
Total		% within q41 41. Hispanic origin	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

**Chi-Square Tests**
	Value	df	Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)	Exact Sig. (2-sided)	Exact Sig. (1-sided)
Pearson Chi-Square	3.430(b)	1	.064
Continuity Correction(a)	2.606	1	.106
Likelihood Ratio	3.387	1	.066
Fisher's Exact Test				.095	.054
Linear-by-Linear Association	3.394	1	.065
N of Valid Cases	94
a Computed only for a 2x2 table
b 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 10.11.

8A. Is there anything that at some point might make you change your mind about leaving, even if the hurricane looks like it will hit Miami-Dade County? [ASKED OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAID THEY WOULD LEAVE]


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES, SPECIFY	15	14.9	22.4	22.4
	2 NO	52	51.5	77.6	100.0
	Total	67	66.3	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	4	4.0
	System	30	29.7
	Total	34	33.7
Total		101	100.0

11. Is there anything that at some point might make you change your mind about staying in your home? [ASKED OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAID THEY WOULD STAY]


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES, SPECIFY	16	15.8	59.3	59.3
	2 NO	11	10.9	40.7	100.0
	Total	27	26.7	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	3	3.0
	System	71	70.3
	Total	74	73.3
Total		101	100.0

14. To what kind of place would you go when you evacuate? The house of a friend or relative, a hotel or motel, a shelter, or some other kind of place.


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 HOUSE OF A FRIEND OR RELATIVE	41	40.6	59.4	59.4
	2 HOTEL OR MOTEL	15	14.9	21.7	81.2
	3 SHELTER	7	6.9	10.1	91.3
	4 OTHER, SPECIFY	6	5.9	8.7	100.0
	Total	69	68.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	2	2.0
	System	30	29.7
	Total	32	31.7
Total		101	100.0

17. What, if any, kind of errands by car or other vehicle would you have to make just before you evacuate from your home? [INTERVIEWER DO NOT READ RESPONSES -- CHECK ALL THAT APPLY -- PROBE IF NECESSARY]



Group $Q17  17. Trips before evacuation:
     (Value tabulated = 1)

                                                             Pct of  Pct of
Dichotomy label                          Name       Count  Responses  Cases

GO TO CHECK ON PLACE OF BUSINESS         q17_2          2      2.9      3.4
GET CHILDREN FROM SCHOOL                 q17_3          3      4.4      5.1
GET SUPPLIES, MEDICINE, ETC.             q17_4         15     22.1     25.4
PREPARE PROPERTY OTHER THAN HOUSE FOR HU q17_5         10     14.7     16.9
HELP SOMEONE PREPARE HOUSE/PROPERTY FOR  q17_6          5      7.4      8.5
OTHER, SPECIFY                           q17_8         11     16.2     18.6
WOULD NOT MAKE ANY OTHER TRIPS BY CAR    q17_9         22     32.4     37.3
                                                  -------    -----    -----
                                 Total responses       68    100.0    115.3

42 missing cases;  59 valid cases

18. How will you be leaving? By car, bus, plane, train, or something else?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 CAR	58	57.4	82.9	82.9
	2 BUS	5	5.0	7.1	90.0
	3 AIRPLANE	3	3.0	4.3	94.3
	4 TRAIN	1	1.0	1.4	95.7
	5 OTHER, SPECIFY	3	3.0	4.3	100.0
	Total	70	69.3	100.0
Missing	6 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	1	1.0
	System	30	29.7
	Total	31	30.7
Total		101	100.0

18A. What is the main evacuation route you would probably take?
[open-end]

19. Do you live in a hurricane evacuation zone?

**Live in evac zone? [ASK IF NOT ANSWERED IN A PREVIOUS QUESTION** --IF IF PREVIOUSLY ANSWERED SYSTEM FILLS ANS]
		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES, LIVE IN EVAC ZONE	87	86.1	87.0	87.0
	2 NO, DO NOT LIVE IN EVAC ZONE	4	4.0	4.0	91.0
	3 NOT SURE	7	6.9	7.0	98.0
	5	2	2.0	2.0	100.0
	Total	100	99.0	100.0
Missing	4 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	1	1.0
Total		101	100.0

20. How easy is it for you to know where the evacuation zones are in Miami-Dade County? Is it very easy, somewhat easy, or not easy at all to know where evacuation zones are?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 VERY EASY	53	52.5	57.6	57.6
	2 SOMEWHAT EASY	19	18.8	20.7	78.3
	3 NOT EASY AT ALL	20	19.8	21.7	100.0
	Total	92	91.1	100.0
Missing	4 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	9	8.9
Total		101	100.0

21. Have you ever been in a hurricane?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES	65	64.4	64.4	64.4
	2 NO	36	35.6	35.6	100.0
	Total	101	100.0	100.0

21A. What is the biggest hurricane you have been in?
[open-end]

22. Have you ever evacuated for a hurricane before?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES	44	43.6	43.6	43.6
	2 NO	57	56.4	56.4	100.0
	Total	101	100.0	100.0

24. From the information you are getting now, does it seem like Hurricane Frances will damage or destroy houses and other property in Miami-Dade County? Does it seem certain, very likely, possible, or very unlikely that it will damage or destroy houses and property?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 CERTAIN	21	20.8	23.3	23.3
	2 VERY LIKELY	32	31.7	35.6	58.9
	3 POSSIBLE	32	31.7	35.6	94.4
	4 VERY UNLIKELY	5	5.0	5.6	100.0
	Total	90	89.1	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	11	10.9
Total		101	100.0

25. From the information you are getting now, does it seem like Hurricane Frances will cause death and serious injury to people in Miami-Dade County? Does it seem certain, very likely, possible, or very unlikely that people will be killed or injured?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 CERTAIN	15	14.9	16.9	16.9
	2 VERY LIKELY	21	20.8	23.6	40.4
	3 POSSIBLE	36	35.6	40.4	80.9
	4 VERY UNLIKELY	17	16.8	19.1	100.0
	Total	89	88.1	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	12	11.9
Total		101	100.0

26. When deciding about whether or not to evacuate, do you mainly follow the evacuation orders of authorities, or do you listen to the orders and then make up your own mind about whether you need to evacuate?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 MAINLY FOLLOW EVAC ORDERS	58	57.4	60.4	60.4
	2 MAKE UP OWN MIND	38	37.6	39.6	100.0
	Total	96	95.0	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	5	5.0
Total		101	100.0

DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTED

Years lived in current home
Years lived in Miami-Dade County
Type of dwelling: single family home, a duplex, a condominium, an apartment, a mobile home, other
Number of floors in building
Floor lived on
Own or rent
Age
Household size
Number under 6 in HH
Number 6 to 18 in HH
Number 19 to 64 in HH
Number 65 and older in HH
Zip code
Address or nearest intersection
Education
Race
Hispanic origin
Language spoken in home
HH income

44. Finally, if Hurricane Frances gets closer, we might want to call back and see how things are going. Would you be willing to let us do that?


		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 YES	83	82.2	85.6	85.6
	2 NO	14	13.9	14.4	100.0
	Total	97	96.0	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	4	4.0
Total		101	100.0

47. Do you have any comments or questions about this survey or hurricanes? [INTERVIEWER, IF ASKED, REFER TO HURRICANE HOTLINE NUMBER FOR Miami-Dade County -- (305) 468-5900]